397 and 403 Month Cycle

There is a theory. It is called the 397 and 403 month cycle.

August 1896, a new bull market that finished in September 1929, it lasted 397 months.

July 1932, a new bull market that finished in Febuary 1966, it lasted 403 month.

December 1974, a new bull market that finshed in ?

January 2008 is 397 months, July 2008 is 403 months.

Be very careful if we still have a bull market ragin going inot 2008.

West


Both of the past cycle collapses wiped out over 50% of the markets value, that did not occur when we topped out in 2000.

Two old timers that follow the market and use different models have the market topping:
1) in the high 14,000s
2) in the 17,000s

Before this cycle ends, could 2007 be the blowoff year with just a massive upward spike like in 1998 and 1999.

We shall see.

West

Real Estate Top?

Chart 1 - Real Estate ETF





Chart 2 - REITs

Chart 3 - Real Estate Short Fund

Not even close, I keep reading everywhere how real estate has topped out. Not until early 2007. My feeling is this top out will be what also leads the stock markets lower.

More on that in another post to follow. Let these three charts determine the real estate top, not the unlimited news feed from every source on the globe. My wife is selling a 35 unit condo project within walking distance to the sea in a market in Europe. Sales are brisk.

Will update on this going forward quarter to quarter.

West